Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241108 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 87.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 23.5 29.0 32.5 30.2 40.2 30.4 26.4 N N N U N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 44.0 66.0 69.0 59.0 57.0 56.0 50.0 U N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 29.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 31.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 14.0 13.0 22.0 33.0 24.0 -7.0 -27.0 U U U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 46.0 37.0 32.0 U U U VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.4% 3.2% 10.3% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 AL182024 241108 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 87.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105.