Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241108 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 88.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 27.4 31.6 30.6 37.8 43.9 35.3 32.7 N N U U U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 64.0 77.0 67.0 67.0 69.0 75.0 93.0 U N N N N N N F Potential [kt] 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 34.4 38.0 27.7 29.3 U U U U VU U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 1.0 -12.0 -13.0 18.0 25.0 15.0 -21.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 48.0 50.0 47.0 43.0 30.0 26.0 VU U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 6.0 -12.0 -2.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.3% 2.4% 5.4% 25kt / 24h 1.5% 2.7% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 AL182024 241108 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 88.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.