Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  31.4  28.4  29.5  42.3  38.7  37.9  19.6  N  U  N  N VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  71.0  76.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         43.0  43.0  39.4  39.4  43.0  43.0  39.4  39.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  -3.0   8.0   2.0  27.0   9.0  -9.0  -7.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  39.0  32.0  30.0  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   9.0   4.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.82

 AL182024 241108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.