Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241109 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 90.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.8 25.3 32.9 37.2 31.0 26.9 20.4 24.0 N N U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 63.0 67.0 69.0 65.0 54.0 53.0 41.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 76.2 74.4 74.4 74.4 78.0 81.6 81.6 83.5 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 5.0 29.0 45.0 18.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 45.0 43.0 42.0 38.0 34.0 30.0 32.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 5.0 -6.0 0.0 -3.0 N N N U N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 7.1% 0.1% 3.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 AL182024 241109 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 90.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.