Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10     91.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  31.3  37.0  36.4  26.3  23.4  22.8  28.8  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         79.4  79.4  83.0  83.0  83.0  86.6  86.6  88.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  40.0  57.0  20.0  10.0 -11.0   0.0  18.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  35.0  31.0  30.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   7.0   7.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.1%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.0%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%        0.3%        4.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 AL182024 241109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10     91.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.