Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  38.9  37.6  32.4  30.5  20.0  25.5  33.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  74.0  54.0  43.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         84.4  84.4  88.0  88.0  84.4  88.0  93.5  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  34.0  33.0  25.0  -5.0 -20.0  15.0  23.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  41.0  37.0  32.0  29.0  34.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0   7.0   6.0  -4.0   1.0  -3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        0.1%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        0.1%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.3%        0.3%        4.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 AL182024 241109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.