Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241110 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 91.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 37.6 34.6 32.4 21.7 21.6 31.9 34.8 U U U U N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 71.0 75.0 84.0 72.0 54.0 42.0 47.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 87.7 82.7 79.6 79.6 87.7 91.2 98.5 100.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 44.0 36.0 7.0 -32.0 -4.0 12.0 22.0 N N N U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 37.0 34.0 29.0 28.0 35.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 6.0 -5.0 -1.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 0.1% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 0.1% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 10.1% 0.3% 5.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.34 AL182024 241110 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 91.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.