Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241110 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 91.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.90 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 34.5 32.9 32.3 17.2 27.5 38.3 37.1 U U U U F N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 78.0 74.0 87.0 93.0 61.0 51.0 40.0 54.0 N N N F N N N N Potential [kt] 84.6 84.6 84.6 92.7 96.2 101.6 103.5 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 31.0 12.0 5.0 14.0 -8.0 8.0 16.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 38.0 34.0 32.0 28.0 33.0 36.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 6.0 -6.0 -5.0 0.0 -3.0 3.0 0.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 70kt / 48h 5.1% 0.1% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 10.6% 0.3% 5.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 AL182024 241110 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 91.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.