Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241110 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.20 92.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.0 31.7 32.2 26.4 20.4 32.0 36.8 36.8 U U U N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 80.0 93.0 87.0 67.0 54.0 44.0 44.0 N N F N N N N N Potential [kt] 84.6 84.6 84.6 92.7 94.4 96.2 101.6 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 5.0 10.0 -13.0 8.0 12.0 6.0 6.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 33.0 31.0 29.0 28.0 31.0 36.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 70kt / 48h 8.5% 0.1% 4.3% 65kt / 72h 12.4% 0.4% 6.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 AL182024 241110 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.20 92.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.