Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241110 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.20 91.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 31.1 23.7 16.0 25.2 35.8 34.0 34.0 U U N F N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 95.0 93.0 92.0 89.0 57.0 51.0 45.0 45.0 F F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 89.6 91.1 97.7 97.7 101.2 106.6 106.6 106.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 11.0 -10.0 17.0 9.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 29.0 29.0 27.0 31.0 33.0 38.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 70kt / 48h 11.3% 0.2% 5.8% 65kt / 72h 19.4% 0.7% 10.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 AL182024 241110 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.20 91.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.