Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241113 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.0  15.4  14.4  13.3   7.1   6.3  10.7  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  63.0  56.0  58.0 124.0  98.0  88.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       37.6%       26.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.0%       19.1%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       17.5%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       17.5%        9.3%
 45kt / 36h       19.4%       58.1%       38.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.9%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h       47.0%       49.2%       48.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       45.5%       35.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       79.8%       70.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL192024 241113 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.0  15.4  14.4  13.3   7.1   6.3  10.7  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%