Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     79.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  17.3  14.4  14.3  14.7  10.1  12.5  13.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 139.3 139.3 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  47.0  51.0  77.0 121.0 125.0 126.0 109.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  68.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       27.0%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%       12.5%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%       11.0%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       11.0%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       43.4%       28.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.0%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h       43.5%       41.5%       42.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       32.7%       28.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       69.6%       65.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL192024 241114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     79.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  17.3  14.4  14.3  14.7  10.1  12.5  13.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  68.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%