Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192024 241114 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 81.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 13.9 14.5 12.4 11.6 8.6 11.9 17.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 49.0 46.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 135.0 134.3 135.0 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 45.0 101.0 100.0 119.0 90.0 70.0 58.0 N N F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 78.0 77.0 72.0 67.0 N F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 4.1% 3.0% 25kt / 24h 14.9% 38.9% 26.9% 30kt / 24h 7.7% 18.9% 13.3% 35kt / 24h 3.8% 18.4% 11.1% 40kt / 24h 3.8% 18.4% 11.1% 45kt / 36h 23.0% 56.3% 39.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 30.1% 15.1% 55kt / 48h 46.5% 46.7% 46.6% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 38.9% 31.9% 65kt / 72h 57.6% 65.5% 61.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 AL192024 241114 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 81.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 13.9 14.5 12.4 11.6 8.6 11.9 17.6 N U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 78.0 77.0 72.0 67.0 N U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%