Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192024 241114 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 82.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 15.3 14.8 14.5 9.9 15.4 14.0 18.7 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 51.0 46.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 101.0 104.0 82.0 114.0 96.0 58.0 33.0 N F F N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 82.0 78.0 72.0 70.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 6.5% 4.5% 25kt / 24h 23.3% 50.7% 37.0% 30kt / 24h 10.8% 30.4% 20.6% 35kt / 24h 4.8% 29.6% 17.2% 40kt / 24h 2.3% 29.6% 15.9% 45kt / 36h 27.4% 69.0% 48.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 48.0% 24.0% 55kt / 48h 49.1% 56.6% 52.9% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 50.5% 37.7% 65kt / 72h 51.9% 69.2% 60.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 AL192024 241114 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 82.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 15.3 14.8 14.5 9.9 15.4 14.0 18.7 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 82.0 78.0 72.0 70.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%