Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     83.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  13.6  13.6  12.5  10.0  12.2  12.8  18.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 127.0 127.0 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 103.0 104.0 129.0 104.0  85.0  56.0  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  74.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        6.3%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       28.5%       51.6%       40.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       32.5%       23.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       32.5%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       32.5%       17.8%
 45kt / 36h       33.9%       66.0%       49.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.3%       22.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       56.6%       53.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       47.2%       36.0%
 65kt / 72h       55.8%       65.5%       60.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL192024 241114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     83.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  13.6  13.6  12.5  10.0  12.2  12.8  18.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  74.0  70.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%