Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192024 241115 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 84.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 16.7 15.6 11.2 16.0 12.0 13.9 9.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 45.0 45.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 127.0 127.0 129.3 130.0 F F F F N N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 79.0 73.0 100.0 118.0 97.0 61.0 49.0 N N N F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 80.0 81.0 80.0 75.0 72.0 65.0 65.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 5.9% 4.2% 25kt / 24h 24.0% 48.5% 36.3% 30kt / 24h 12.1% 30.3% 21.2% 35kt / 24h 6.8% 30.1% 18.5% 40kt / 24h 2.0% 30.1% 16.1% 45kt / 36h 24.7% 59.2% 42.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 37.6% 18.8% 55kt / 48h 41.3% 48.5% 44.9% 70kt / 48h 24.3% 39.0% 31.7% 65kt / 72h 54.3% 64.4% 59.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.40 AL192024 241115 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 84.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 16.7 15.6 11.2 16.0 12.0 13.9 9.1 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 80.0 81.0 80.0 75.0 72.0 65.0 65.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%