Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192024 241115 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 84.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 13.3 9.5 16.0 18.9 11.3 9.8 12.0 F F F F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 45.0 45.0 6.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 124.3 124.3 122.0 122.0 122.0 124.3 125.0 106.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 83.0 94.0 113.0 71.0 35.0 53.0 32.0 N N F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 71.0 67.0 61.0 60.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 5.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.5% 14.8% 10.7% 25kt / 24h 45.5% 69.9% 57.7% 30kt / 24h 20.9% 60.1% 40.5% 35kt / 24h 14.9% 60.1% 37.5% 40kt / 24h 6.4% 57.3% 31.8% 45kt / 36h 31.5% 72.9% 52.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 57.2% 28.6% 55kt / 48h 47.2% 61.3% 54.2% 70kt / 48h 22.1% 51.3% 36.7% 65kt / 72h 44.6% 67.2% 55.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.36 AL192024 241115 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 84.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 13.3 9.5 16.0 18.9 11.3 9.8 12.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 71.0 67.0 61.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 5.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%