Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     85.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  11.7  13.0  14.6  14.6  15.9  10.0  16.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  47.0  14.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  97.0 117.0  88.0  68.0  56.0  27.0   8.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  73.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.3%       22.5%       18.4%
 25kt / 24h       57.0%       75.0%       66.0%
 30kt / 24h       35.1%       66.8%       50.9%
 35kt / 24h       29.0%       66.8%       47.9%
 40kt / 24h       12.1%       65.4%       38.7%
 45kt / 36h       43.0%       76.8%       59.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       62.9%       31.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.7%       62.2%       55.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       52.9%       38.8%
 65kt / 72h       35.6%       55.5%       45.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 AL192024 241115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     85.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  11.7  13.0  14.6  14.6  15.9  10.0  16.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  73.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%