Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241115 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     86.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  13.2  14.5  15.9  16.0  16.1  14.7  13.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  38.0  28.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 120.0 101.5  91.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 127.0  88.0 119.0  52.0  54.0  17.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        8.5%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       35.5%       51.1%       43.3%
 30kt / 24h       18.3%       35.0%       26.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       35.0%       23.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%       35.0%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       30.2%       50.6%       40.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       29.3%       14.6%
 55kt / 48h       35.9%       39.9%       37.9%
 70kt / 48h       20.9%       24.6%       22.8%
 65kt / 72h       31.6%       30.8%       31.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL192024 241115 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     86.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  13.2  14.5  15.9  16.0  16.1  14.7  13.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%