Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  16.2  17.8  17.4  17.3  11.1  16.2  17.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  45.0   6.0  42.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 120.0 110.1  95.5  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   126.0 111.0 115.0  72.0  66.0  15.0  25.0  34.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0  12.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.1%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       19.5%       32.6%       26.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       17.7%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       17.7%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       17.7%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h       21.3%       27.6%       24.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.8%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       27.2%       23.7%       25.5%
 70kt / 48h       12.9%       10.4%       11.6%
 65kt / 72h       28.2%       16.0%       22.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 AL192024 241116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  16.2  17.8  17.4  17.3  11.1  16.2  17.3  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0  12.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%