Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  17.8  15.2  16.3  15.7  13.5  16.4  16.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  43.0  16.0  36.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 124.3 124.3 125.0 104.4  96.6  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 103.0  34.0  45.0  59.0  21.0  43.0  43.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       17.2%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        7.5%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        7.0%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.0%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%       15.4%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       16.5%       13.2%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        4.9%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h       25.9%       11.3%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 AL192024 241116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  17.8  15.2  16.3  15.7  13.5  16.4  16.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%