Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  12.3  15.4  17.4  14.0  18.6  18.6  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  45.0  45.0   6.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 124.3 125.0 125.0 100.5 100.5 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  65.0  51.0  76.0  43.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       18.9%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        8.7%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        8.1%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        8.1%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       16.8%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       10.6%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        4.2%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%        8.3%       15.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 AL192024 241116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  12.3  15.4  17.4  14.0  18.6  18.6  18.6  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%