Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  16.7  19.6  16.2  16.4  17.7  17.7  17.7  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  45.0  45.0  33.0  18.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 104.4  94.8  94.8  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  53.0  69.0  88.0   9.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   9.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.0%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       25.0%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%       11.8%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       11.6%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       11.6%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       20.8%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%        9.3%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        4.7%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       20.1%        8.5%       14.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL192024 241116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  16.7  19.6  16.2  16.4  17.7  17.7  17.7  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   9.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%