Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     87.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.1  17.7  14.2  16.4  16.4  16.4  16.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  47.0  39.0   9.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  76.0  84.0  47.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       14.5%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        6.2%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        5.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.6%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       11.8%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%        5.9%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        2.9%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h       19.1%        7.6%       13.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL192024 241117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     87.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.1  17.7  14.2  16.4  16.4  16.4  16.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%