Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  17.4  13.5  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  43.0  12.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  75.0  43.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       16.1%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        7.6%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        6.7%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.7%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       16.1%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        8.1%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        4.6%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%       10.8%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 AL192024 241117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  17.4  13.5  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%