Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  14.6  15.7  15.9  15.9  15.9  15.9  15.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  13.0  18.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 109.4 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  43.0  33.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   9.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       15.9%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        7.3%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        6.5%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.5%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       19.1%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%        7.0%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        9.3%        5.1%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h       19.6%       10.8%       15.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL192024 241117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  14.6  15.7  15.9  15.9  15.9  15.9  15.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   9.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%