Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192024 241117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     89.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.9  14.2  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 114.4 110.5 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  51.0  36.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        8.7%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.8%        2.7%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%        2.2%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h       21.9%        6.0%       13.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 AL192024 241117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     89.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.9  14.2  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%