Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192024 241118 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 90.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 119.4 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.7% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 8.9% 4.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.8% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 11.0% 2.6% 6.8% 70kt / 48h 11.0% 2.5% 6.8% 65kt / 72h 28.0% 7.9% 17.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 AL192024 241118 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 90.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.