Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240822 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 141.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 14.4 17.0 17.5 14.6 15.9 15.3 19.7 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 7.0 12.0 6.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.4 94.4 94.4 87.7 89.3 91.0 92.7 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 43.0 18.0 -25.0 30.0 35.0 39.0 26.0 U N U VU N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 N U U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.9% 2.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 9.6% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 70kt / 48h 4.2% 2.7% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 3.9% 2.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.62 CP012024 240822 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 141.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.