Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240823 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 142.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 18.3 16.9 15.2 15.2 15.7 14.6 15.3 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.4 87.7 87.7 87.7 91.0 89.3 91.0 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 23.0 -10.0 28.0 19.0 23.0 24.0 24.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 56.0 52.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -4.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 9.1% 4.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.7% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 70kt / 48h 5.2% 2.5% 3.8% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 3.9% 2.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.46 CP012024 240823 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 142.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.