Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  15.0  14.3  13.1  14.7  14.3  15.5  19.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   9.0   5.0   8.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  87.7  89.3  87.7  89.3  92.7  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  25.0  39.0  36.0  19.0  30.0  12.0 -15.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        4.7%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        0.9%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        1.8%        1.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 CP012024 240823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.