Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240823 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 145.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 14.1 12.3 15.1 15.1 15.2 20.2 27.5 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 14.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.7 84.3 84.3 82.7 84.3 87.7 94.8 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 17.0 27.0 33.0 20.0 34.0 -12.0 -8.0 U U U N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 52.0 U N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -1.0 4.0 1.0 9.0 2.0 N N F N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.4% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 70kt / 48h 4.8% 1.1% 2.9% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.34 CP012024 240823 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 145.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.