Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240823 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 13.9 17.0 16.2 17.1 18.5 25.9 33.5 F F F F F N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 3.0 8.0 9.0 3.0 7.0 17.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.3 81.1 82.7 84.3 87.7 91.2 96.6 102.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 14.0 12.0 8.0 18.0 4.0 -19.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 56.0 51.0 52.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -1.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.4% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 0.5% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 CP012024 240823 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.