Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240824 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 148.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 15.6 16.4 16.9 16.4 17.8 26.1 27.0 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 8.0 9.0 5.0 4.0 15.0 15.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.1 77.7 79.3 79.3 82.7 89.8 93.5 99.4 U N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 15.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 -9.0 6.0 28.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 56.0 55.0 56.0 52.0 50.0 49.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.9% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.34 CP012024 240824 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 148.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.