Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240824 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 149.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 16.6 16.4 15.4 16.6 22.5 28.2 30.2 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 9.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 15.0 15.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.7 74.3 74.3 77.7 81.2 86.6 90.5 94.4 U U U N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 8.0 22.0 20.0 -9.0 8.0 32.0 18.0 U U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 55.0 53.0 49.0 49.0 45.0 44.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -3.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.0% 1.8% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 5.0% 3.3% 30kt / 24h 1.6% 2.1% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 45kt / 36h 1.1% 8.5% 4.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.2% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 CP012024 240824 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 149.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.