Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240824 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 151.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 16.2 16.8 16.6 17.3 27.5 28.5 34.0 F F F F F N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 15.0 19.0 14.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.3 69.3 71.0 72.7 79.8 81.6 87.4 89.4 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 23.0 31.0 9.0 7.0 21.0 18.0 17.0 U U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 54.0 52.0 49.0 48.0 46.0 43.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.4% 3.2% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 7.8% 5.3% 30kt / 24h 2.7% 4.0% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 3.7% 3.2% 40kt / 24h 2.7% 3.7% 3.2% 45kt / 36h 1.9% 11.3% 6.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.0% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 CP012024 240824 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 151.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.