Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240824 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 152.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 18.1 17.7 18.4 23.9 29.1 28.6 33.3 N F F F N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 19.0 16.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.3 71.0 71.0 76.2 81.6 87.4 89.4 91.5 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 27.0 20.0 -5.0 5.0 33.0 22.0 -17.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 44.0 42.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 2.4% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.6% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.52 CP012024 240824 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 152.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.