Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    153.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.1  18.8  20.5  29.3  28.6  32.7  36.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   3.0   5.0  17.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.3  74.4  76.2  79.8  83.5  89.4  91.5  91.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  18.0  -5.0  -9.0  29.0  -1.0 -20.0 -25.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.66

 CP012024 240825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    153.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.