Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    154.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.0  20.6  26.0  29.3  29.0  33.4  37.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   5.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  10.0  13.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.0  66.2  69.8  71.6  77.4  79.4  81.5  81.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  -1.0 -21.0  13.0  -2.0  26.0 -33.0 -28.0  U  U VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.9%        3.8%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%        7.4%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        3.9%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%        3.9%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%        3.9%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        5.0%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 CP012024 240825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    154.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.