Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240825 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 156.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 26.7 31.7 34.0 36.9 39.4 44.4 46.6 N N U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 18.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 16.0 18.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.2 64.8 70.5 72.4 74.4 76.5 78.6 78.6 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -30.0 -4.0 13.0 -16.0 0.0 -23.0 -36.0 11.0 VU U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 44.0 41.0 40.0 38.0 42.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 1.3% 2.9% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.04 CP012024 240825 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 156.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.