Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    157.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  32.2  33.2  35.7  40.1  41.3  46.6  46.6  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  14.0  15.0  12.0  11.0  20.0  16.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.5  75.5  77.4  79.4  81.5  81.5  83.6  85.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  20.0 -34.0 -23.0 -13.0 -40.0 -40.0  10.0  U  U VU VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  40.0  44.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 CP012024 240826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    157.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.