Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  32.5  35.7  38.3  39.8  42.6  44.6  45.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  15.0  12.0  10.0  16.0  16.0  21.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.5  82.4  84.4  84.4  86.5  86.5  88.6  92.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0 -31.0 -22.0 -15.0 -27.0 -36.0 -15.0   5.0  U VU VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  41.0  47.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 CP012024 240826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.