Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    160.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  38.6  39.2  40.6  41.3  44.5  43.8  48.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  18.0  15.0  23.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.4  89.4  89.4  91.5  93.6  93.6  97.9  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -23.0 -11.0 -17.0 -33.0 -20.0  21.0   8.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  38.0  43.0  48.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 CP012024 240826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    160.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.