Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240826 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 161.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.9 36.0 37.7 37.9 41.4 42.7 43.6 43.6 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 9.0 10.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 23.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.4 89.4 91.5 91.5 93.6 93.6 97.9 100.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -19.0 -27.0 -29.0 -61.0 -5.0 0.0 -3.0 U U VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 38.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 46.0 47.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 CP012024 240826 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 161.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.9 36.0 37.7 37.9 41.4 42.7 43.6 43.6 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 38.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 46.0 47.0 52.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.0% 0.9%