Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.9  39.6  41.5  41.2  46.4  42.6  45.6  44.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  10.0  16.0  18.0  14.0  21.0  27.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  96.5  96.5  98.6  98.6 100.7 100.7 102.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -40.0 -35.0 -48.0 -29.0   7.0  -5.0  -8.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  42.0  45.0  49.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 CP012024 240827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.9  39.6  41.5  41.2  46.4  42.6  45.6  44.9  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  42.0  45.0  49.0  53.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        4.4%        1.2%        2.8%