Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240827 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 163.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.2 41.9 43.5 47.2 48.7 49.5 52.8 52.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 17.0 17.0 13.0 18.0 23.0 27.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.5 94.4 96.5 96.5 98.6 100.7 102.9 100.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -35.0 -37.0 -60.0 -59.0 -22.0 -2.0 18.0 22.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 36.0 38.0 39.0 44.0 48.0 55.0 58.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 CP012024 240827 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 163.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.2 41.9 43.5 47.2 48.7 49.5 52.8 52.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 36.0 38.0 39.0 44.0 48.0 55.0 58.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.3% 1.8% 4.5%