Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240827 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 164.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 45.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.5 40.8 44.6 47.7 45.5 50.8 51.5 52.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 16.0 12.0 12.0 24.0 38.0 33.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.5 99.4 101.5 103.6 105.7 105.7 107.9 107.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -33.0 -31.0 -46.0 -10.0 -14.0 -16.0 38.0 0.0 VU VU VU U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 38.0 39.0 41.0 44.0 50.0 54.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 CP012024 240827 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 164.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 45.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.5 40.8 44.6 47.7 45.5 50.8 51.5 52.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 38.0 39.0 41.0 44.0 50.0 54.0 59.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.9% 1.2% 4.6%