Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240827 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 165.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.6 45.9 51.2 49.0 51.1 55.6 53.7 55.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 13.0 11.0 16.0 31.0 35.0 29.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.4 101.5 101.5 103.6 103.6 105.7 105.7 107.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -46.0 -42.0 -1.0 -15.0 -8.0 -2.0 15.0 0.0 VU VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 51.0 57.0 63.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.58 CP012024 240827 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 165.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.6 45.9 51.2 49.0 51.1 55.6 53.7 55.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 51.0 57.0 63.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.5% 1.5% 5.0%