Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    166.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  48.8  48.2  47.8  57.1  56.8  55.2  56.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0  14.0  19.0  38.0  32.0  26.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 103.6 101.5 105.7 105.7 107.9 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0  -9.0 -17.0   2.0   1.0   8.0  -1.0  20.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  47.0  52.0  58.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 CP012024 240828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    166.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  48.8  48.2  47.8  57.1  56.8  55.2  56.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  47.0  52.0  58.0  63.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.3%        1.3%        4.8%