Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    167.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.6  45.1  45.7  47.9  56.1  53.1  54.4  50.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  18.0  24.0  37.0  33.0  23.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 103.6 103.6 105.7 107.9 110.1 107.9 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -7.0 -14.0  -8.0   4.0  10.0  11.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  51.0  55.0  63.0  65.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 CP012024 240828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    167.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.6  45.1  45.7  47.9  56.1  53.1  54.4  50.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  51.0  55.0  63.0  65.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        6.6%        1.2%        3.9%